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Experts Line Up Expectations, Pitfalls Ahead Commissioning Of $19bn Dangote Refinery

Analysts predict that the upcoming commissioning of the $19 billion Dangote Refinery on May 22, 2023, may not immediately solve Nigeria’s petroleum industry challenges.

The refinery aims to revive the struggling state-owned refineries in Kaduna, Warri, and Port Harcourt. However, Nigeria’s history with these refineries has been plagued by neglect, inefficiency, and wasteful spending.

Despite massive investments, fuel scarcity and subsidy payments persist, with Nigeria spending billions annually on fuel importation and subsidies.

The Dangote Refinery is expected to save significant costs by eliminating the need for fuel imports and subsidies.

Experts believe it will positively impact Nigeria’s economy, job creation, foreign exchange savings, tax revenues, and insulate the country from international fuel shocks.

However, concerns remain about potential vandalization of the existing refineries and the potential for higher fuel prices under private ownership.

Competition through licensing modular refineries is suggested as a means to counteract monopolistic pricing.

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